Getting These Picks to Bet
However, although we can’t tell the future, having a degree of certainty and looking for positive expected value situations can make sports betting even more entertaining because you will become a more profitable bettor. Here, We’ve scouted out some of the best situations for you this coming weekend when it comes to which lines to pay attention to and which ones to stay away from. We’ve also taken a look at one of the prop bets in particular from the many that are out there that you might want to pay some consideration to.
Hopefully, you are already crushing the sportsbooks this season. If not, we hope to help you change that.
The Power of Making the Right Bet
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
This game doesn’t look very special at first. The home team, the one with the much better record, is a 10.5 point favorite. And although the Cardinals have definitely struggled to put points up on the board this year, they might be the best choice to cover the spread here. The Cardinals defense has been fairly effective at limiting passing plays this season, which is where the Vikings have had their success. It’s also against teams like the Cardinals that the Vikings have struggled against. Take the game from Week #3 against the Buffalo Bills, for example. The Bills were able to secure a 27-6 victory thanks to their overpowering defense. The Vikings are capable of putting a lot of points on the board, but they haven’t done so at all against better defenses.
Now, the Cardinals have problems of their own, one of which is putting points on the boards themselves. There’s a strong chance that this will be a low scoring game, so taking the under side of the 43 point over/under is probably a smart choice. This is still pretty low, so be careful not to take any bets that offer a number that’s smaller. This could be a very profitable game if it plays out for you like it does on paper.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
This game has all sorts of potential, especially if Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is out here. He is currently listed as questionable by the team. With him still in the game, the Falcons are listed as 3.5 point favorites. Without him, that line is completely meaningless. A bet on the Bucs to cover suddenly becomes an extremely positive expected value play. A 48 point showing against the New Orleans Saints during Week #1 has shown that they have the potential to put up big numbers and beat top rated teams at times.
And let’s talk about that over/under, too. At 57.5 points, that line is way too high. These are two teams that are struggling a lot more than they should be. The Falcons are 1-4 and the Bucs have a respectable 2-2 record going into Week #6, but both are failing to put Ws up on the record sheet. However, the Falcons have been part of a few high scoring games this season, which is likely why this number is so high. Fortunately, the number is still a bit unrealistic if Ryan is out here, which could make this another game with a lot of value hidden in it.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
By now, you may have figured out that I’m a Patriots fan. I know, I know. People do not react well when they find that out.
Putting that aside, this is an interesting game. The Chiefs are 5-0 right now, one of the handful of teams that have remained undefeated at this point in the season. The Pats are just 3-2. However, most books have the Patriots listed as 3.5 point favorites here. Speaking honestly, the Patriots have not had a tough schedule so far this year, and their two losses came against teams that they should have beaten. The Chiefs are their first real challenge of the season. Even with home field advantage, they could be overpowered by the surprisingly good Chiefs offense.
Let’s look at it this way: the Chiefs have averaged more than 30 points per game this season and the Patriots defense is really struggling against mediocre teams. It pains me to say this, but the Chiefs should cover the spread here. Also, that over/under of 59 points could be a point of contention. The Chiefs should cover their end of it, but it’s tough to say what the Patriots offense will come up with. They tend to be contenders, and I believe that this game will end on the over side of things, but do know that I might be a little biased with this one.
Speaking of the Patriots, one of the more exciting events that us fans have to look forward to is Tom Brady surpassing Brett Favre on the all-time TD list for second place. He is 8 away from Favre and 39 away from Peyton Manning for first place. When and where these TDs will take place is one of the hottest prop bets right now.
These kinds of bets can be tough to predict but looking at what Brady has done so far this season can give us a good starting point. He has averaged 2.4 TDs per game so far this season and has been able to put up 3 in each of his last couple games against weaker defenses. If we stick to 2 against tough defenses and 3 against weaker ones, we have Brady scoring numbers 508 and 509 against the Green Bay Packers on November 4th. If you can find a book that is offering strong odds on this date, this could be a good opportunity.