The Betting Continues in the NFL

Week #3 of the NFL season is here. Hopefully, your bets so far this season have been seeing a nice return. There have been a few surprises here and there, but that’s normal. A smart money management system will help you to weather these unexpected events and help you to build a long term profit through your betting. Part of that long term success involves making smart choices when you’re finding betting opportunities—which is what we are here to help with.

Remember that the lines on the described bets will vary from book to book. What looks like a good bet at one sports betting site will not necessarily be the same good deal at another. A successful strategy should involve not just finding good bets, but finding good lines, too.

The Games

There are a few interesting matchups this weekend that should present great opportunities for sports bettors. Looking to these matchups each week and finding high value plays will be a helpful thing for you throughout the season.

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 6 point favorites in this game, according to the most current spread available. This makes sense. The Eagles have home field, they’re the returning Super Bowl Champs (but they don’t make our top 5 for Super Bowl future bets), and they have had a decent start to the season. But the Colts have some seriously untapped potential right now. QB Andrew Luck has had a rocky start to his season but has shown promise that he’s capable of much better. He has thrown just 4 TDs along with 3 interceptions. In the past, he has not been so inaccurate. Much of this is likely due to missing most of last season thanks to injury. If he continues to improve, this game will be a bit closer than 6 points. The Eagles are still favorites but the line is a bit inflated at 6.

That same type of thinking leads us to believe that the over/under is worth your consideration. Currently, this is set at 47.5 points. With the Colts only having scored an average of 22 points per game, and the Eagles sitting at 19.5, the over/under seems quite high. An under bet is a good play, but only if it stands at 47.5. Any lower, and you will want to stay away.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Any time you see a spread set at -17, it warrants some attention. Let’s get the obvious out of the way here—the Bills are horrible this year and the Vikings are pretty solid. The Bills do not have a decent shot of winning at all, which is why their money line is set at +2,000. But are the Bills really favored to lose by 17 points? That seems pitiful, especially at this point in the season.

They were destroyed in Week #1 by the Baltimore Ravens, but only lost by 11 points in Week #2 to the Chargers. The Chargers were favored to win, and 11 points was a lot closer than many spreads had the game set at. Now, the Vikings are a better team than the Chargers, and they have a much better offensive line than other teams that the Bills have faced. Plus, they tied one of the Super Bowl favorites last weekend. There’s little doubt that the Vikings will win. Add in home field advantage, and there’s another 3 points in the Vikings favor.

Honestly, although that 17 point spread is high, the Bills might have trouble covering. Stay away from the spread and the money line on this one. The more interesting opportunity is the over/under of 41. The Bills lost by more than 41 in the first game of the season, and the Vikings are a better team than the Ravens. The over is a solid opportunity, even though both teams have decent defenses.

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

This game has a bit of boredom associated with it just because neither team is generating much excitement—but that might be exactly why it’s worth your consideration. The Cardinals should be a much stronger team than they have shown us so far, and Week #3 is not too late in the season for this to be exemplified. The Cardinals have home field here, yet the line is set at +6 against them. This should be getting far more attention than it has been, but so far the game is not on many radars. That means the line is unlikely to move much, if at all.

Our recommendation? See where the line is close to kickoff early on Sunday. If it is still at +6 or better for the Cardinals, it could be a high value play.

Super Bowl

If you’re looking at Super Bowl futures, the consensus favorite is still the New England Patriots. Even after some team restructuring after their Super Bowl loss last season, the oddsmakers still have them listed as the favorite, mostly because of the strength of QB Tom Brady. While it’s hard to argue against him as a great QB, the odds being offered on the Pats right now are fairly weak, especially after watching their Week #2 loss. If you can find a price above +1,000 for New England, it could be a good deal. However, anything lower than this you will want to stay away from.

That leaves plenty of opportunities for teams like the Green Bay Packers, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New Orleans Saints. These teams range in the +1,200 to +1,600 range, all of which seem like great buys. The one concern is the Steelers. Although they should have an amazing team on paper, the personnel issues that they are facing is discouraging. You might want to avoid them if this is a prolonged issue.

There’s even been some buzz about the Los Angeles Rams being a contender this year. Based on two weeks of play, they could be the real deal. However, being a young team and being so far out of contention in the past does cause some worry. You will want a price of at least +1,500 if you’re considering this.