Predicting Super Bowl 49

Who will win?

The big game is set for Sunday. The New England Patriots are 2 point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, which would imply that it’s smart to just put your money on the Patriots for the win, and leave it at that. However, it’s not that simple. Those 2 points are definitely not a certainty, and that means that there’s a chance you could lose this bet, and the rewards might not be worth the risk. In reality, this game could go either way, and that means if you want to make the right choice as far as betting goes, you need to be smart about it.

Betting the money line is a smart method if you are simply attempting to pick the winner, but there’s more to it. Different sports books will offer different prices on the game, and this means you need to shop around before you put your money on the line–that is, if you can find a book that is currently offering a money line. Most books are not offering this at the moment simply because the New England Patriots are seeing so much money placed on them that it is not worthwhile for books to offer this option. In reality, at best, they are probably 3 point favorites, but they are definitely a big fan favorite, which is skewing the money being placed on them.

Instead, what should you do? There are a few routes to go. You can go with the spread, either putting your money on the Patriots to win by more than 2 points, or that the Seahawks will lose by fewer than 2 points. This is a tougher bet than it seems because the books study betting trends and try to make it so that they will make money regardless of who wins or what the score is. The best way to do this is to first construct your own theory of what the score will be, and then find the best line possible. So, let’s say you figure out that the Patriots are 1 point favorites. That means a bet on the Seahawks to cover the spread (of 2) is smart, but now you want to find a good price. The standard is -110, so ideally, you’d like to find something better than this, and definitely not worse. An even money bet is probably the best you will find.

The over/under is another good bet. The industry standard right now ranges around 47.5 to 48 points. Both teams have higher average scores than this over the regular season, but both have strong defenses, which means that the 54 or so points that they would normally score total is going to be lower. This is still tilting things toward the over bet, and if you can find a book that will give you 47.5 points plus a better price than -110, that is the best bet to take with this.

The final choice for a complete game bet is the prop bet. There are literally hundreds of these out there, and it will take hours to sift through them all to find a good one. It could be worthwhile to you to do so, but it will definitely take some effort. Look at the bets that are easily determined with statistics, and not just random chance if you are making a bet for the purpose of creating a profit and not just for fun.

Posted in Betting Guide